Higher rates hit homebuilders as the dollar holds firm

1. The week

Tight money is still the main driver, but it's stretched. Treasury futures are bearish on every timeframe and deeply oversold on the weekly, while the dollar is bullish on every timeframe. Higher rates are now hitting rate-sensitive areas. Homebuilders broke below 86.35 with mortgage rates at 7.40%, and semiconductors fell 4.4%. The strong dollar weighs on gold and silver, which have stalled, while copper is moving higher. Crypto got turned back at its upper levels as ETF money flowed out. In stocks, money rotated from the Nasdaq into the S&P 500, which is making new highs, while small caps stay weak. Prices run through the weekly close on Oct 9, and crypto runs through Oct 11.

2. Watching

1. US dollar, higher. The trend continues as long as it holds 101.57, and a weekly close below 100.39 breaks it. It's already well above that level, so the better entry is on a pullback that holds. Volume is fading, and CPI could jolt it. Confidence: medium.
2. Homebuilders (ITB), lower. The bearish case is a rally that gets rejected at 86.35–87.41, or weekly closes that stay below 86.87. Rates and the news agree. The caveat is that this read rests on one fund and one timeframe. Confidence: medium.

3. Silver, lower. The bearish case is a rally that gets rejected at 64.785, with 66.748 as the line where it's wrong. It's the same strong-dollar story as the first item, so the two calls aren't independent. Confidence: medium.

3. What would change it

CPI on Oct 14, PPI on Oct 15, and the Fed on Oct 27–28. Treasuries are very oversold, so a soft inflation print could spark a sharp bounce against the 104.859 level and loosen the dollar's grip.